To make a point, I’m going to start off by listing the last MLB FIP leaders over the last 25 years:
- 2009: Zack Greinke (2.33)
- 2008: Tim Lincecum (2.62)
- 2007: Jake Peavy (2.84)
- 2006: Johan Santana (3.04)
- 2005: Johan Santana (2.84)
- 2004: Randy Johnson (2.30)
- 2003: Pedro Martinez (2.21)
- 2002: Pedro Martinez (2.24)
- 2001: Randy Johnson (2.13)
- 2000: Pedro Martinez (2.17)
- 1999: Pedro Martinez (1.39)
- 1998: Kevin Brown (2.23)
- 1997: Roger Clemens (2.25)
- 1996: John Smoltz (2.64)
- 1995: Randy Johnson (2.08)
- 1994: Greg Maddux (2.39)
- 1993: Greg Maddux (2.85)
- 1992: Roger Clemens (2.54)
- 1991: David Cone (2.52)
- 1990: Roger Clemens (2.18)
- 1989: Bret Saberhagen (2.45)
- 1988: Roger Clemens (2.17)
- 1987: Nolan Ryan (2.47)
- 1986: Mike Scott (2.16)
- 1985: Dwight Gooden (2.15)
- 1984: Dwight Gooden (1.69)
So, over the last 25 years, only two pitchers have had a FIP below 2.00. In fact, going back through the FanGraphs era (1974-present), Doc and Pedro are the only two starters to have a FIP below 2.00.
Tim Lincecum could join them this year.
I know, I know, he’s only made six starts in 2010 going into Sunday. And, I know, his FIP coming into Sunday was just below 2.00 at 1.93.
But his xFIP—which normalizes for home runs and usually is a sobering stat for quick starters—sits at 1.97.
Lincecum has an 11.91 K/9 and 1.70 BB/9, coming out to a 7.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s compensated for a drop in fastball velocity by throwing an absurdly good changeup—which is 6.23 runs above average.
ZiPS doesn’t see Lincecum continuing his ridiculous dominance for the rest of the season, projecting a 2.49 FIP for the rest of the season. The main factors behind that are a rise in Lincecum’s BABIP from its current .275 to .310 and a rise in BB/9 to 2.98.
It’s tough to argue with those ZiPS projections, but it’s still cool to think about Lincecum having a shot at posting a FIP below 2.00 this year. At the least, he looks well on his way to winning his third consecutive NL Cy Young.
Masters of WAR 