You know it’s early in the year when…
…coming into Sunday, Scott Podsednik had a better wOBA than Matt Holliday, Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Adam Dunn, and Hanley Ramirez. Ivan Rodriguez has been even better, besting Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez, and a bunch of other guys.
Both Podsednik and Rodriguez have BABIPs that are through the freaking roof, with Pods coming in at .442 and Pudge at .460. Only Austin Jackson (.500!) and Martin Prado (.473) have higher BABIPs than Rodriguez, and those three plus Franklin Gutierrez (.446) have higher BABIPs than Podsednik.
For reference, the highest BABIP any regular player had in 2009 was .394 by David Wright. A look at the top BABIPs of ’09 reveals a lot of really good hitters (i.e. Ichiro, Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer) and speedsters (Michael Bourn, Jason Bartlett, Chone Figgins).
The problem is that neither Rodriguez nor Podsednik qualify as good hitters or speedsters.
The 39-year-old Rodriguez hasn’t had a good wOBA since 2004 and has a barely below-average speed score of 4.5. Podsednik has had some average wOBAs over the years, but the last time he had a really good wOBA was 2003.
So when you combine each player’s BABIP with their recent history, there’s almost no chance either player keeps hitting as well as they have for the first three weeks of the year. If they do, then they obviously have some sort of magic pixie dust they sprinkle on their bats.
And if they do, they should pass some of it to Mark Teixeira (.128 BABIP), Aramis Ramirez (.140), and Carlos Quentin (.149).
The odds are stacked against both Podsednik and Pudge. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But if I’m right, I guess I’ll just high-five myself or something.
Because there ain’t no party like a Liz Lemon party because a Liz Lemon party is mandatory.
Masters of WAR 